Banking On Buzios' Oil Supply

A look at the potential and pitfalls of Brazilian oil supply growth through 2030

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a report on Brazilian oil supply growth through 2030. With the nation expected to be a major source of global oil supply, EIR analyzes the key risks of banking on its offshore development projects.

Drilling in Brazil has greatly declined since 2015 as oil price volatility, notably sub-$30/bbl Brent oil prices in early 2016, was compounded by heavy debt levels that Petrobras, the state-owned Brazilian multinational corporation controlling 65% of operating fields, accumulated in the wake of the Operation Car Wash scandal. Since 2008-09, activity has dropped from 700 appraisal, exploration and development wells drilled annually, to less than 200 so far this decade.

“We forecast Brazil will be a major driver of oil supply growth to the end of the decade on the back of its offshore pre-salt development,” said Josephine Mills, associate at EIR. “If government policy and regulation changes in Brazil affect the pace of offshore development, global inventories will remain under-supplied, pushing up oil prices as few countries have the potential to boost production significantly.”

Key takeaways from the report:

• Enverus Intelligence Research forecasts that new oil supply from Brazil’s offshore fields will come on slower than predicted by the EIA.
• Brazil is a hot spot for oil supply growth, currently accounting for ~13% of production in EIR’s NOCAR (non-OPEC, Canada, U.S. and Russia) supply stack, and we expect that share to increase to 20% by 2030.

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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.