Canadian Oil Sands: A Look At Regulatory, Economics And Transportation

Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion key to near-term production but environmental pushback, GHG reductions could constrain expected growth

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report that forecasts Canadian oil sands production through 2030, including a projection for Saskatchewan, and looks at regulatory, economics and transportation issues that could pose hurdles to our estimates. The report arrives as EIR recently cut its forecast for U.S. production growth, a result of the headwinds created by oilfield services limitations, the risk of recession and reduced performance from wells drilled recently in the Permian Basin.

“Expansion in the oil sands will be supported by the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, which is due to come online at the end of 2023,” said Carson Kearl, report author and an associate at EIR. “The increased takeaway supports our growth projection to the end of the decade when we believe increasing social and political headwinds will begin to slow or stall the region’s pace of growth.”

Key takeaways from the report:

• Canadian oil sands production is on pace to grow to 4.2 MMbbl/d by 2030, up from ~3.3 MMbbl/d today, driven by infrastructure buildouts that will increase takeaway capacity.
• Federal regulations, expected to be enacted in early 2023, will seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas industry by 31% below 2005 levels in 2030 (or 42% below 2019 levels).
• Other challenges, including pipeline planning, uncertain longer-term economics and growing public environmental pushback against new mining projects, may also constrain growth.
• Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser.