Defying Peak Oil Predictions

Fuel economy standards and slowed electric vehicle momentum expected to steady global oil demand growth through 2030; OPEC’s influence on prices expected to strengthen

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted generative AI and energy-dedicated SaaS company, has released a new report highlighting the organization’s view that it does not expect global oil demand to peak or plateau by the end of the decade.

Instead, EIR expects global oil demand to grow to approximately 108 MMbbl/d by 2030. Chief among their evidence is that fuel economy standards have underwhelmed their stated targets, while electric vehicle momentum appears to be slowing in the U.S. Rising supply costs and the lack of new supply projects announced to date are likely to push oil prices higher, particularly in the post-2030 period. This, combined with off-oil measures, could result in peak demand next decade. Overall, EIR does not see the needed material shifts in consumption per-capita trends by region and product, nor does it see the disconnect between economic growth and oil consumption needed for oil consumption to peak prior to 2030.

“Both OPEC and IEA global oil demand estimates require a significant change in consumption behavior or a reversal of off-oil measures over a short period. History is not in their favor. Instead, we believe the rate of demand growth will gradually slow but not peak. However, the regional dispersion of the growth changes dramatically,” said Al Salazar, report author and director at EIR.

“Our demand forecasts result in a world where OPEC’s influence on oil price strengthens, supporting the group’s preference for Brent prices of $85-$105/bbl,” said Salazar.

Key takeaways from the report:

• Global oil demand will not peak before 2030. Instead, growth will slow modestly, while the regional distribution of this growth will change dramatically.
• For more bullish (OPEC) or bearish (IEA) estimates for global oil demand growth to come to fruition by 2030, significant changes to consumption per capita trends and a disassociation between global economic growth and oil consumption must occur now. History is not in their favor.
• Our view results in a world where OPEC’s influence on oil price strengthens, supporting the cartel’s preference for prices of $85-$105/bbl.

View Report Here

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. EIR is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Enverus is the most trusted, generative AI and energy-dedicated SaaS company, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. For more information, visit Enverus.com.