Exposing The Hidden Bear Trap: Recession Expected To Bite Global Oil Demand

China, India and non-OECD Asia will drive oil demand growth in 2023, with other regions offering negative or marginal growth

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report that looks at near-term global oil demand, correlations between gross domestic product (GDP) and oil demand, and impacts of a possible recession on oil demand. EIR’s report further explains its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2023, and why it remains sharply lower than the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC’s estimates.

“Our analysis shows that China, India and non-OECD Asia are the largest components of oil demand growth in 2023, with other regions offering negative or marginal growth at best,” said Bill Farren-Price, report author and a director at EIR.

“While we don’t anticipate a repeat of the 2008 recession, we assess the consensus estimate for 2023 oil demand growth (1.7-2.0 MMbbl/d growth over this year) as optimistic, especially compared to historical analogues. We instead forecast oil demand growth of 1.0 MMbbl/d Y/Y for 2023,” Farren-Price said.

Key takeaways from the report:

• EIR forecasts global oil demand in 2023 will grow 1 MMbbl/d, lower than the major agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA).
• While the IMF GDP forecasts underpin our oil demand model, EIR observes that in 2008-09, the IMF was late in forecasting recession; light in its expectations for the pace of recovery; and that medium-term growth was lower than the Fund’s forecasts in the recovery phase.
• Around 50% of global oil demand serves the transport sector, where energy transition is accelerating.

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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser.