Global Natural Gas Balances To Remain Tight Until 2026

To what extent will global LNG supply grow to meet demand in the wake of the loss of Russian pipeline supply to Europe?

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new natural gas-focused report that provides various scenarios for long-term global LNG demand and compares to existing and post-final investment decision (FID) supply to infer the need by 2030 for projects that could reach FID in the coming year.

“We modeled four LNG demand scenarios through 2030, with three out of the four producing oversupply in 2026-2028. Under those three scenarios, global demand for LNG will exceed supply until 2026, by which time European policy will cut the continental pull for volumes to make up for lost Russian gas and demand growth will switch to Asia. Until then, European demand should underpin Dutch TTF at a premium to JKM, as it did for most of 2022,” said Jonathan Snyder, a vice president at EIR and report author.

Key takeaways from the report:

• Global LNG supply will increase 37% from 2022 to the equivalent of 71 Bcf/d by 2030, assuming all sanctioned projects come online, according to Enverus projections. The largest components of LNG growth are from Qatar and North America, whose planned projects together account for 13 Bcf/d of growth, the bulk of which will come into service from 2025-2027.
• We modeled four LNG demand scenarios through 2030, with three out of the four producing oversupply in 2026-2028. Under those three scenarios, global demand for LNG will exceed supply until 2026, by which time European policy will cut the continental pull for volumes to make up for lost Russian gas and demand growth will switch to Asia. Until then, European demand should underpin Dutch TTF at a premium to JKM, as it has for most of this year.
• In the 3% growth per annum scenario, global LNG demand reaches over 68 Bcf/d by 2030, 16 Bcf/d higher than 2022 levels. In the 5% growth per annum and 8% growth per annum scenarios, global LNG demand reaches 76 Bcf/d and 92 Bcf/d respectively. Yet-to-be-sanctioned projects require the 8% demand growth scenario if full utilization of pre-FID LNG projects is to be realized.

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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser.